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Market Commentary
Playing Digital Defense
PIM takes cybersecurity very seriously. Defensive operational protocols permeate our technology infrastructure and our day-to-day business operations. Along the way, we have learned a few things.
Read MoreStrategy for TIAA Real Estate
We mentioned in prior written communications that our approach to the TIAA Real Estate account was under consideration. We have concluded our analysis. What follows is a review of where we have been, where we are now, and where...
Read MoreSo Far, So Good….Sort-Of
The purpose of our writing is to educate and inform. Most often the approach is proactive. We have an idea or concept in mind that we believe you might find interesting. This narrative is a bit more reactive....
Read MoreThe Reality of Real Estate
One of the reasons for the challenging forecast is the impact of higher interest rates on the banking sector. The specific implications of the availability of credit on commercial real estate is the primary topic of this month's commentary
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Rates, Bonds and Banks
Banks must be profitable, but society requires them to be safe and boring enterprises. The middle ground is hard to find. The core activity of a bank is converting short-term customer deposits into long-term investments....
Read MoreThe Washington Estate Tax
We have devoted most of this edition to a discussion of the state of Washington estate tax. While most PIM clients may never pay federal estate tax, given the very high exclusion amount, we estimate that most could be subject to state...
Read MoreA Tale of Two Forecasts and The Reality of Real Estate
From December 13th to December 28th, the S&P 500 declined in value by 5.88%. From December 29th to the end of January, the S&P 500 appreciated 8.8%. This short-term rally was driven by improving inflation data and a number of economic...
Read MoreHappy New Year
In This Edition: 1) New RMD age and other annual updates, 2) Tax Loss Harvesting, 3) The Year Ahead...
Read MoreA Year to Forget
This is the time of year when Wall Street strategists begin rolling out their 2023 forecasts. In general, they will be wildly wrong....we will discuss the key factors that we think will drive returns in the coming year.
Read MoreWhy Raise Interest Rates?
In our last newsletter, we discussed the impact of increasing interest rates and quantitative tightening on the U.S. bond market. Below, we discuss why the Fed believes that raising interest rates will bring inflation down to its...
Read MoreIt's All Relative
In this edition of PIM’s Quarterly News Release, we discuss: 1) Relative Investment Return, 2) Valuations, 3) The Bond Market. The Bond Market narrative is a much longer, more detailed presentation than we have ever...
Read MoreEnd of Silly Season (The Rally That Was)
It is common for stocks to rally in the midst of a bear market. While this type of rally provides relief from the grind of daily volatility, it is generally based upon modest and possibly fleeting good news rather than enduring...
Read MoreThe Energy Sector
Many factors influence inflation; the cost of energy is one of the most impactful, visible and fast-moving. Energy prices need to be in a sustained downtrend if inflation is going to fall as quickly as the market bulls now hope.
Read MoreSummer Blues
We begin this edition of our quarterly News Release with a brief discussion on one important element of estate planning and conclude with a detailed market commentary.
Read MoreTwo Roads Diverged in a Yellow Wood
And which path the market will take is unknown....The present situation is especially challenging because the path the market takes will be less driven by the health of the economy, which normally it is, and more driven by the actions of...
Read MoreIn the Eye of the Storm
Not since March of 2020, during the early panic associated with the COVID-19 pandemic, has the stock market suffered such a bad month. The natural question to ask is when absolute performance will be positive. The answer follows....
Read MoreQuarterly News Release: 2nd Quarter 2022
The economic and geopolitical environment is more complex than normal and thus, requires a greater understanding of the factors that influence the short and intermediate-term possible outcomes. We start with a discussion of market valuation
Read MoreAs the World Turns
For the second time in two years, global capital markets have become unsettled by world events. And for the second time in two years, we were already in the process of reducing portfolio risk when these destabilizing events occurred.
Read MoreEconomic Transitions
It was certainly our hope that we could spend a few months without talking about inflation and the Federal Reserve, but the events of the past month demand otherwise. Both inflation readings and Fed policy changes had a heavy impact on...
Read MoreQuarterly News Release: 1st Quarter 2022
Welcome to 2022. In this edition: 1) Company Announcements, 2) Timely and useful information, as we have presented in Januarys past, 3) A deep dive into our own 2021 capital markets forecasts and our views on 2022.
Read MoreBlack Friday and Crypto
Greetings and welcome to December. This edition of our monthly communication is a bit longer than normal. We present general announcements, a brief discussion on market volatility and close with a longer discussion about cryptocurrency.
Read MoreThat 70s Show.....Not
One of the prominent themes of our newsletters this year has been inflation. Inflation rates for countries globally have hit decade, and in some cases, multi-decade highs. Even the Federal Reserve, long champion of the “inflation...
Read MoreThe Inelastic Markets Hypothesis
For most of the post-war era, the prevailing academic models that seek to explain capital market prices have been based upon the assumption that the market is completely efficient. The traditional economic...
Read MoreThe Housing Market
A primary residence is often a person’s largest single asset. In this part of the country, price appreciation has surprised proud homeowners and real estate professionals alike. A general concern may be emerging that the housing market...
Read MoreQuarterly News Release: 3rd Quarter 2021
Read the News Release here.
Read MoreLocal Matters, and the Nature of Inflation
Much like the weather in the Puget Sound during spring, the economic data points released in May were wildly inconsistent. Labor market and inflation data both missed analysts’ forecasts by huge margins, but in opposite directions...
Read MoreAn Unusual Recession and Recovery
In the recent PIM Quarterly News Release, we proposed that the equity market had overreacted to inflation concerns. We suggested that bond yields would fall and that as a result, value equity outperformance would give way to...
Read MoreQuarterly News Release: 2nd Quarter 2021
Read the News Release here.
Read MoreThe Bond Market
The S&P 500 is up approximately 3% for the year through the last trading day of February. March is coming in with a bang, but we will ignore that for the moment. Even the month of February saw the S&P 500 gain around 1%....
Read MoreEquity Market Opportunities and Risks
Irvin Fisher was a prominent US economist who made many significant contributions to his field in the early 1900’s. Nobel-winning economists Milton Friedman and James Tobin have called Mr. Fisher “the greatest economist the...
Read MoreQuarterly News Release: 1st Quarter 2021
Read the news release here.
Read MoreNot So Fast
Election results and vaccine announcements from Pfizer, Moderna and AstraZeneca have made this the best November for the S&P 500 since 1928, with the index (SPY) gaining 10.93% through Monday, November 30th. The Russell 2000 (IWM), the...
Read MoreEarnings, the Election and Roth Conversions
Introduction This communication contains two completely unrelated sections: Market Commentary, and Why a Roth Conversion Now? We have chosen to present these in the same document because the section on Roth IRA conversions is quite...
Read MoreQuarterly News Release: 4th Quarter 2020
Read the news release here.
Read MorePatience and Uncertainty
In the monthly communication we released on Tuesday, we discussed that U.S. large cap market returns are concentrated within a handful of technology stocks and suggested that this was cause for concern. The market confirmed this...
Read MoreA Very Expensive Market
Month in Review: August 2020 Global equity markets continued higher this past month on a mix of vaccine optimism and better than expected earnings. The S&P 500 and the MSCI All-Cap World Index (a measure of all equity markets globally)...
Read MoreThe Active vs. Passive Debate
Greetings valued clients. We hope this finds you well and enjoying the summer sun to the extent possible. In earlier communications we mentioned our intention to provide commentary monthly through the end of the year. This is the first...
Read MoreQuarterly News Release: 3rd Quarter 2020
Please read news release here.
Read MoreNegative Interest Rates
For the past approximately two months, we have produced a communication each Friday. Our hope was to provide clear information and analysis, as well as consistent support and guidance through what has been a most unusual economic and...
Read MoreVolatility, Market Leadership and the Future
Introduction: We have suggested in recent weeks that the market and economic recovery will take time, that there will be volatility along the way. The volatility of an investment is commonly expressed using a measure called...
Read MoreCrisis Economics
“Now this is not the end. It is not even the beginning of the end. But it is, perhaps, the end of the beginning.” Winston Churchill: November 10, 1942 We present this Churchill quote for two reasons. First, we understand...
Read MoreJobs, Oil, Markets and Portfolios
Jobs, Oil, Markets and Portfolios Jobs: Unemployment claims increased by 4.4 million in the past week, though the trend is sharply down since spiking during the last week of March. Around 26 million jobs have now been lost due to the...
Read MoreMarket, Virus and Economic Update
The S&P500 gained another 3 ½ percent this week, with plenty of volatility along the way and a strong finish on Friday. Continued volatility is to be expected and is likely to continue through September. Market behavior is about...
Read MoreCautious Optimism
It has been a positive week for equity markets, with the S&P500 advancing approximately 9.4% in the last five trading sessions. Speculation abounds, ranging from expectations of a shorter than expected recession and bear market to what...
Read MoreThis Too, Shall Pass
Seeking Inspiration: Quite a while ago, we shared with you what is considered to be the actual history of the phrase “May you live in interesting times.” As a reminder, it likely did not originate in China, and it was not...
Read MoreQuarterly News Release: 2nd Quarter 2020
Please read news release here.
Read MoreQuarterly News Release: 1st Quarter 2020
Read the news release here.
Read MoreQuarterly News Release: 1st Quarter 2019
Read News Release here.
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